The Predictions reserve¶
Put your firm's capital behind Predictions, watch how much of it is committed, and withdraw what you no longer need.
Because your firm is the counterparty on every prediction contract it sells, it has to hold capital against what it might have to pay out. The Reserve screen is that capital: what you have allocated, how much of it is committed to open contracts, and what is left.
Prerequisites
- Predictions is enabled for your firm.
- Your permission group grants the Predictions View capability to read the screen, and the Reserve capability to move money. With view only, the page says you do not have permission to move the firm's reserve.
- Reserve actions are refused while you are acting as another user — sign back in as yourself.
Open the screen¶
In the left sidebar, open Predictions and choose Reserve.
Until capital has been allocated, the page says the reserve has not been funded and offers the allocation action — nothing is assumed and no zero balance is invented.
Read the figures¶
| Figure | What it tells you |
|---|---|
| Allocated | Total capital you have put behind Predictions. |
| Utilized | How much of it is committed to open contracts. |
| Available | What is free to back new selling. |
| Required reserve | What your open book currently requires. |
| Firm bucket requirement | The firm-level part of that requirement. |
| Safety buffer | The cushion held above the requirement. |
| Withdrawal headroom | The most you could withdraw right now without breaking the buffer. |
| Minimum safety buffer | The smallest cushion the platform will let you run. |
| Lifetime funded / Lifetime withdrawn | Everything ever put in and taken out. |
A status badge names the reserve's state — Active, Openings paused, Withdrawal pending, or Frozen — and the currency the figures are in.
Allocate capital¶
- Click Allocate capital.
- Enter the Amount.
- Enter the Approved money movement reference — the reference for the transfer your finance team has already approved.
- Add a reason, then confirm.
Warning
Allocation records capital your firm has already moved; it does not move money by itself. Use an approved transfer reference only, and never type credentials or secrets into that field.
Withdraw capital¶
Withdrawals take two people, deliberately.
- One operator clicks Request withdrawal, enters the amount and a reason, and submits the proposal. It then sits on the page as a Pending withdrawal proposal, showing the amount, who proposed it, when, and why.
- A different operator clicks Approve withdrawal. The person who proposed it cannot approve it — the page says so rather than letting them try.
Either operator can Cancel withdrawal to withdraw the proposal instead. Only one proposal can be open at a time; resolve it before proposing another.
A withdrawal that would take the reserve below its required safety buffer is refused, and the page names the buffer as the reason.
When the books disagree
If the capital and risk books do not reconcile, the page shows a Reserve books do not agree notice and withdrawals are refused until they do. Reading the figures still works. Raise it with your platform provider.
How the reserve reaches your pricing¶
Utilization is not only a number to watch. Your pricing policy can add markup as the reserve fills up, through its utilization bands — so a firm running near its capacity charges more for taking on more. The exposure screen shows the same capital alongside the book it is backing.