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The risk policy

Set your firm's hard exposure ceilings for Predictions — per order, per customer, per market, and in aggregate.

Because your firm is the counterparty on every prediction contract it sells, its worst case is the total it would have to pay if every contract it sold came good at once. The risk policy is where you bound that number.

Unlike pricing and commission, risk has no scope hierarchy: there is one risk policy for the whole firm.

Prerequisites

  • Your permission group grants the Predictions View capability to read the screen, and the Risk capability to change it.
  • Policy changes are refused while you are acting as another user — sign back in as yourself.

Open the screen

In the left sidebar, open Predictions and choose Risk policy.

The In force card shows the active policy. If your firm has none, the screen says so plainly: with no active risk policy there are no ceilings to enforce.

0 means no capacity

Every value here is a hard ceiling, and 0 means no capacity at all — it never means "unlimited". A limit accidentally left at zero stops the product rather than opening it up.

The limits

Limits are grouped the way a risk desk thinks about them.

Per order

  • Order cost — the largest amount one order may cost.
  • Order quantity — the largest number of contracts in one order. Traders see this number on the buy ticket before they order, and an order over it is refused with the maximum stated rather than a bare "too large".

Per customer

  • Customer payout in one market — the most your firm could owe one customer on a single market.
  • Customer total open cost — the most one customer may have spent across all their open contracts.

Per market

  • Market gross payout — the most your firm could owe on one market in total.
  • Market worst loss — your firm's worst outcome on one market once what it took in is netted off.

Aggregate worst loss — the same worst-case measure, widened step by step: per Event, per Topic, per Provider, and for the Firm as a whole.

Timing and freshness

  • House cutoff before provider close — how far ahead of the source's close your firm must stop selling, at or above the platform's floor. This bounds the house cutoff you can set when you publish a market.
  • Maximum quote age — how stale a source price may be when your firm prices a contract.
  • Maximum feed gap — how long the source may go quiet before trading is held.

Create and activate a policy

  1. Click New risk policy.
  2. Fill in the limits. Values outside the platform's own bounds are refused with a message naming the limit.
  3. (Optional) Set Effective from, and add a Reason for the audit trail.
  4. Click Create draft — a draft enforces nothing.
  5. When you are satisfied, click Activate. Activating retires the policy currently in force.

Retiring is permanent; a retired risk policy can never be re-activated.

Note

Every purchase is checked against these ceilings as it is made, not after the fact — a buy that would breach one is refused, and the trader is told a risk limit has been reached. Watch how much of each ceiling is in use on your exposure screen.

A refusal names the number

Because nothing partially fills, an order over a per-order ceiling is refused outright. The refusal states the ceiling, so nobody has to guess it by trying smaller orders. With no active risk policy the stated maximum is zero — which is the honest answer, since a firm with no policy has no capacity at all.